A study published this Wednesday (9) in the scientific journal Nature delivers a serious warning: if global warming exceeds 1.5ºC, the threshold considered safest by scientists, the impacts will be “irreversible” for humanity, even if temperatures are temporarily reduced. The research, conducted over three years by 30 scientists, addresses a growing concern as efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions lag behind.

The 1.5ºC limit, established by the Paris Agreement, seems increasingly difficult to maintain. This raises the question: should we accept that this threshold might be surpassed for a few decades? The scientists’ answer is clear: “No.” They warn that if this occurs, the consequences would be permanent and could last for thousands of years.
If the global average temperature rises beyond 1.5ºC, the planet would reach “tipping points,” such as the melting of permafrost and peatlands—huge carbon stores that, once lost, would release vast amounts of greenhouse gases, further accelerating global warming.
Moreover, if the 1.5ºC limit is exceeded for a century, sea levels could rise by an additional 40 centimeters, posing a serious threat to island nations. “Even if we manage to bring temperatures back down, the world we live in would no longer be the same as if we had never crossed the threshold,” explained Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, lead researcher and scientist at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria.
According to the United Nations, the current climate commitments made by countries are projected to result in nearly 3ºC of global warming by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels. Greenhouse gas emissions are approaching their peak, but reductions have yet to begin. To stay within the 1.5ºC limit, emissions would need to be cut by almost half by 2030.
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