Asteroid Could Hit Earth in 2032: NASA Reveals Possible Impact Areas

A recently identified asteroid, named ‘2024 YR4,’ has a 2.1% probability of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, according to NASA. The discovery was made by astronomers from the Catalina Sky Survey Project, a program funded by the U.S. space agency, which also determined the areas on the planet that could be affected in case of an impact.

According to studies, the possible trajectory of the asteroid extends across a strip that crosses northern South America, traverses the Pacific Ocean, and reaches parts of Africa and Asia. Among the densely populated regions within this risk zone are Chennai, in India, and Hainan Island, in China. The countries that could be impacted include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador.

The ‘2024 YR4’ has dimensions comparable to the Statue of Liberty in the United States. If it hits a populated area, the damage could be severe, with infrastructure destruction and potential casualties. In an extreme scenario, the area affected by the impact could extend up to 19 km in all directions from the collision point.

The first detection of the asteroid occurred on December 27, 2024, through the Atlas telescope, located in Chile and funded by NASA. However, it had already passed close to Earth two days earlier, on December 25, when it became visible to space monitoring systems. Since then, its orbit has been tracked and analyzed to refine predictions about its future behavior.

Initially, calculations regarding its trajectory had a high degree of uncertainty, but new observations have been refining the predictions. Colin Snodgrass, a professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, told The Guardian that the asteroid will most likely pass without causing harm. “We need to continue monitoring with telescopes to confirm this projection. The more we study its orbit, the more accurate our future trajectory estimates become,” the expert explained.

Despite the relatively low chances of collision, the UN has activated its Planetary Security Protocol for the first time to monitor the situation. Currently, the asteroid is classified as level 3 on the Torino Scale, which measures the impact risk of space objects. This category is rare for asteroids of this size, as smaller rocks typically burn up in the atmosphere without causing significant damage.

The next close approach of ‘2024 YR4’ will occur in 2028, with no risk of impact. Meanwhile, scientists are analyzing archival images to check for possible previous records of the asteroid, which would help better understand its orbit and reduce uncertainties about its future movement.

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